Outline for Victory (IV): Youth

“He who is not a liberal at twenty compels one to doubt the generosity of his heart; but he who, after thirty, persists, compels one to doubt the soundness of his mind.” 
 
 
About the youth vote (18-29) in 2020, here are some facts from the Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement at Tufts University: 
  • Over half of all voters under the age of 30 voted in the 2020 elections, a record figure. 
  • The surge in turnout greatly benefited Joe Biden, who won the youth vote by 24 points (60%-36%) over Trump. 
  • Avoiding the failure that plagued Democrats in 2016, Biden's campaign went after young voters throughout the presidential campaign. 
The Tufts Center found that the share of youth voting as opposed to not voting rose by 8% over 2016 (although youth share of total votes rose just 1% from 16% to 17%, slightly ahead of the rise in total votes). 
 
Young people played a critical role in the key battleground states. In Michigan, the 62% of youth supporting Biden provided him 194,000 votes, higher than Biden’s 148,000-vote victory margin. In Georgia, where Biden barely won, youth gave him 188,000 more votes than Trump. In Arizona, also very close, Biden had 126,000 from young people, who preferred him by 24%. In Pennsylvania, where Biden won by 82,000 votes, he received 154,000 more youth votes than Trump. The racial breakdown: Biden received 87% of the young Black vote, 83% of Asians, 73% of Hispanics, but 51% of Whites. 
 
Youth suffered during last year's pandemic with its closed schools and limited job opportunities. They blamed Trump for mishandling the virus, saying, “this presidency was so crazy.” Biden by contrast promised to take down student debt, boost climate change, and reform immigration. 
 
So in the face of all this, how does a populist party make headway with young people? Consider these points:
  • It is not necessary to win a majority of youth, just do better. 
  • If progressives fail to generate a strong economy and hand the economic issue to populists, gains among youth will follow. 
  • The obvious way to counter youth preference for progressives is to do better among the elderly; a larger group with a greater propensity to vote. 
But youth are, and identify with, minorities. It’s the “demographics are destiny” imperative upon which Democrats count. Roughly 60% of the population is White, but just 55% of youth, and less than half of the school aged children coming up behind them. Furthermore, consider these figures: The most common age today is 11 years old for Hispanics, 27 for Blacks, and 29 for Asians. For Whites, 58. 
 
For populists, it will be absolutely necessary to appeal across racial lines. 
 
It’s also true, however, that young people do tend to grow out of their idealistic self assurance. Pondering youth, age, elite, and masses, economist Thomas Sowell from Stanford’s Hoover Institution — at age 80 — asked why do ordinary people  outperform elite members blessed with more education, intellect, data and power? We know from science that the human brain reaches its maximum potential in early adulthood. So why are young adults so incapable of doing what those with years of experience can do? 
 
Sowell’s conclusion: 
 
experience trumps brilliance. Elites may have more brilliance, but those who make decisions for society as a whole cannot possibly have as much experience as the millions of people whose decisions they pre-empt. The education and intellects of the elites may lead them to have more sweeping presumptions, but that just makes them more dangerous to the freedom, as well as the well-being, of the people as a whole.

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