Young Folks Prefer Progressives

Myra Adams is a media producer and writer with Bush ’04 and McCain experience. Adams documents that after landslide Republican victories in 1980, 1984, and a sizable win in 1988, youth have helped opponents of five GOP presidential nominees and two incumbents, costing them popular vote victories in seven of the next eight quadrennial elections. While both Bill Clinton (1996) and George W. Bush (2004) won re-election with popular vote triumphs, since 2008, it’s been Democrats 4, Republicans 0. 

Beginning with Obama, Democratic strength among incoming young people has overcome Republican strength among seniors. In 2008, youth (18-29) were 18% of the vote, and went for Obama over McCain by a remarkable 34%. Seniors (over 65) were 16% of voters, and voted McCain by only 8%. Four years later, it was youth (19% of voters) +23% for Obama, seniors (16%) + 12% for Romney. Hillary Clinton won youth (19% of vote) by “only” 19% in 2016, but lost to Trump among seniors (16% of voters) by just 7%. And last year, it was Biden youth (17%) over Trump by 24%, while Biden lost seniors (now 22% of total voters) by a mere 5%. 

In between, we have the declining age 30-44 group, dropping from 29% of voters in 2008 to 23% in 2020. They went for Democrats by a smaller average of 7.5%, though favoring Hillary by 10% in 2016. Those age 45 to 64 form the largest group by far — 37% in 2008, 38% in 2012, 40% in 2016, and 38% again in 2020. They split almost evenly in 2008, 2012, and 2020, though going for Trump by 8% in 2016. 

A better explanation for Hillary’s popular vote victory in 2016 was her strength in non-competitive California. Trump won the popular vote in the rest of the country. Democrats won the popular vote outside California in 2008, 2012, and 2020, leading with their strength among youth. 

Republicans have a younger voter problem not overcome by collecting support from seniors, contradicting what this blog earlier suggested. It’s a fact.

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